It is a truth that the work of any government is built on the numbers. This provides them with the data they need for their forecasts, achievements, and statements and promises or announcements of economic measures.
These figures are made by specialists, economists, forecasters and a whole bunch of experts.
And if the latter were wrong, made forecasts a little too optimistic or pessimistic, this would necessarily distort the data of such important documents as the budget or the budget law.
According to table drawn up by Bawsala which clearly knows to write only in Arabic, the Tunisian forecasters would have been completely mistaken since 2015.
One would understand that they want to be optimistic for GDP growth, where all their forecasts have been far from reality. But we note throughout this table that they are also completely mistaken for the budget deficit and for debt.
One would also understand that they could never have guessed the true rate of inflation, for reasons beyond their control and which are related to the exchange rate, the anticipation of economic operators and others.
This has almost always forced the Ministry of Finance to develop a supplementary finance law each year that corrects the misjudgments of its economists and other forecasters.
Unless, politically, the will has been to optimize for purely political reasons, so as not to offend Tunisians and let them always believe that “everything is under control” and that everything will be fine.
What we notice from this table is that economists and other forecasting specialists have been wrong. There is, however, a Council of Economic Analysts chaired by a former Minister of Industry.
Would it, too, be completely mistaken and also be deceiving himself heavily on the numbers that allow making good forecasts? Or would it not be heard by the government?
However, there are also many experts in oil, trading rooms and foreign currencies, able to make the right forecasts. One would then wonder where are they or why would not they be called upon?
This case is not small fry, it’s heavy. The figures, forecasts and economic indicators are not there to look good, for the scenery, apart from the use made by the authorities to measure public policies, there is also the use made by investors and donors.
If the reliability of the data provided by the authorities (which is their job) became a problem, it is the entire edifice of trust that could crumble. Indeed, how could one
reasonably consider placing one’s marbles in a country that plays with such important data, or even massage them? Confidence at this level is a matter of billions of dollars or euros; it’s not a trifling matter! The government has an interest in putting its records in order. Tunisia, to the point where it is, cannot afford the luxury of missing out on this level.
