Thursday, November 22, 2018

AfricanManager

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    Investments related to projects costing more than 5 MD have risen by 65.5% from 1,668.4 MD during the first ten months of 2017 to 2,760.8 MD during the same period of 2018.

    These projects will allow the creation of 17,187 jobs compared to 11,263 in the first ten months of 2017, i.e. an increase of 52.6%.

    This is what emerges from the figures released by the Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (APII).

    It should be noted that projects of 5 MD or more, which represent only 4.4% of the number of reported projects and 32.0% of the number of jobs, account for 90% of all reported investments.

    Among the 143 projects (I> 5 MD) reported during the first ten months of 2018, thirty projects totaled an investment amount of 1,125.7 MD, or 40.8% of the total investment (I> 5 MD).

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      According to the figures published by the Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (APII), investments reported in the industrial sector reached the amount of 3,065.9 MD during the first 10 months of 2018, compared to 3,000.5 MD in the same period of 2017, posting an increase of 2.2%.

      The number of projects reported reached 3,214 in the first ten months of 2018 compared to 3,051 in the first ten months of 2017, up 5.3%.

      These projects will generate 53,707 jobs, compared to 47,761 in the first ten months of 2017, i.e. an increase of 12.4%.

      Reported investment in the industrial sector reached the amount of 333.3 MD in October 2018, against 338.3 MD in October 2017, down 1.5%.

      The number of reported projects reached 336 during the month of October 2018 compared with 305 in October 2017, i.e. an increase of 10.2%.

      These projects will generate 5,361 jobs, compared with 3,926 jobs in October 2017, i.e. up 36.6%.

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        0 134

        The long series of disappointing releases continues for the Tunisian Tire Industries Company (STIP).

        Acquired in 2016 by the Tunisian group Africa Holding, the company announced a new loss in 2017.

        After posting a record loss of 50 million dinars in 2016, the STIP reported a deficit of 27.5 million dinars last year.

        The company’s revenues decreased by 37% to 30.4 million dinars while operating expenses amounted to 46.5 million dinars (-67%) of which 19.8 million dinars staff costs.

        The operating result shows a deficit of 15.9 million dinars against -35.8 million a year earlier.

        In addition, the financial expenses of the company stood to 12.1 million dinars at the end of last December, against 13.4 million in 2016.

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          Reported investment in the service activities reached the amount of 1,156 MD during the first ten months of 2018, against 1,499 MD during the first ten months of 2017, posting a decrease of 22.9%. This is what emerged from the latest figures from the Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (APII).

          Thus, the number of projects reported reached 9,417 in the first ten months of 2018 compared to 7,357 in the first ten months of 2017, up 28.0%.

          These projects will create 35,858 jobs, compared with 31,638 jobs in the first ten months of 2017, i.e. an increase of 13.3%.

          Compared to the same month last year, reported investments in the service activities recorded a rise of 2.7% (87.6 MD vs. 85.7 MD in October 2017).

          The number of reported projects grew from 696 to 1,056 during the month of October 2018, up 51.7%.

          The number of jobs to be created reached 3389 against 2780 in the month of October 2017, up 21.9%.

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            Industrial production fell by 0.7% in the first nine months of 2018, compared with the same period last year.

            According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), this decrease is explained by the decline in production in the chemical industry sector (-9.9%), following the decrease observed in the production of phosphate derivatives, the non-metal mineral products manufacturing sector (-2.9%) and the petroleum refining sector (-28.5%).

            The non-energy extraction sector posted a 15.6% decline due to the drop in crude phosphate production to 2.616 million tons in the first nine months of 2018 compared with 3.586 million tons at the end of September 2017, i.e. a fall of 27%.

            Phosphate production and washing units belonging to the Gafsa Phosphates Company (CPG) in Redaief, Oum Larayes and M’Dhila in Gafsa governorate have been paralyzed since last Monday after protests by unemployed people who took part at a staffing competition but were not hired.

            On the other hand, industrial production increased by 5.9% in the agri-food industry (due to the increase in olive oil production), the mechanical and electrical 1.3%, the clothing and leather textile industry sector by 1% and the energy products extraction sector by 1.5%.

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            0 75

            It is a truth that the work of any government is built on the numbers. This provides them with the data they need for their forecasts, achievements, and statements and promises or announcements of economic measures.

            These figures are made by specialists, economists, forecasters and a whole bunch of experts.

            And if the latter were wrong, made forecasts a little too optimistic or pessimistic, this would necessarily distort the data of such important documents as the budget or the budget law.

            According to table drawn up by Bawsala which clearly knows to write only in Arabic, the Tunisian forecasters would have been completely mistaken since 2015.

            One would understand that they want to be optimistic for GDP growth, where all their forecasts have been far from reality. But we note throughout this table that they are also completely mistaken for the budget deficit and for debt.

            One would also understand that they could never have guessed the true rate of inflation, for reasons beyond their control and which are related to the exchange rate, the anticipation of economic operators and others.

            This has almost always forced the Ministry of Finance to develop a supplementary finance law each year that corrects the misjudgments of its economists and other forecasters.

            Unless, politically, the will has been to optimize for purely political reasons, so as not to offend Tunisians and let them always believe that “everything is under control” and that everything will be fine.

            What we notice from this table is that economists and other forecasting specialists have been wrong. There is, however, a Council of Economic Analysts chaired by a former Minister of Industry.

            Would it, too, be completely mistaken and also be deceiving himself heavily on the numbers that allow making good forecasts? Or would it not be heard by the government?

            However, there are also many experts in oil, trading rooms and foreign currencies, able to make the right forecasts. One would then wonder where are they or why would not they be called upon?

            This case is not small fry, it’s heavy. The figures, forecasts and economic indicators are not there to look good, for the scenery, apart from the use made by the authorities to measure public policies, there is also the use made by investors and donors.

            If the reliability of the data provided by the authorities (which is their job) became a problem, it is the entire edifice of trust that could crumble. Indeed, how could one

            reasonably consider placing one’s marbles in a country that plays with such important data, or even massage them? Confidence at this level is a matter of billions of dollars or euros; it’s not a trifling matter! The government has an interest in putting its records in order. Tunisia, to the point where it is, cannot afford the luxury of missing out on this level.

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              Tunisia has exported 53 thousand tons of organic products worth more than 520 million dinars from January 2018 to October 2018, i.e. a growth of 43% in value and 28% in quantity compared to 2017.

              According to the latest data published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries, Tunisia has exported 60 organic products to 37 countries in 5 continents.

              The main products exported are olive oil and dates with quantities estimated at 42 thousand tons and 10,473 tons, respectively.

              The value of exports of these two products is estimated at 429.3 million dinars for olive oil and 80.4 million dinars for dates, which represents almost 90% of export earnings of organic products.

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                0 128

                According to the preliminary results of the quarterly national accounts, Tunisia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.6% in the third quarter of 2018, compared to the same quarter of 2017 and 0.5% over the second quarter of 2018, said the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

                Tunisia’s GDP thus recorded growth of 2.6% over the first nine months of the current year compared with the same period in 2017 (1.9%).

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                  The value added of non-manufacturing industries grew by 3.7% in the first nine months of 2018, compared to the same period of the previous year, mainly because of the rise in oil

                  production to nearly 37.5 thousand barrels a day, according to the latest statistics from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

                  Growth is also due to higher production in the oil and gas extraction sector (8.5%) and the construction sector (1.8%).

                  In this respect, daily production of crude oil rose to nearly 37.5 thousand barrels in the nine months of 2018, compared with a daily average of 33.7 thousand barrels in the previous year and more than 70 thousand barrels daily in 2010.

                  However, the mining sector fell by 3.3%, following the decline in phosphate production, which reached nearly 1.1 million tons during the same period, against 1.2 million tons in the same period of 2017.

                  The average production during the three quarters was estimated at nearly 2 million tons before 2011.

                  Growth of manufacturing industries down

                  The growth of manufacturing industries went down by 0.3% in the nine months of 2018. This drop is due to an 8.5% decrease in chemical industries’ production with phosphate and derivatives production declining 22%.

                  However, growth was recorded in the textile-clothing sector (1.6%), the mechanical and electrical industries (0.3%), the agro-food industries (1.1%) and the building materials, ceramic and glass sector (0.9%).

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                    The number of unemployed people estimated in the third quarter of 2018 stands at 642.8 thousand against 638.0 thousand unemployed in the second quarter of 2018, i.e. an unemployment rate of 15.5% in the third quarter against 15.4% in the second quarter of 2018.

                    This is what emerges of the quarterly survey of the INS. According to the same statement, the active population in Tunisia stood at 4145.5 thousand in the third quarter of 2018 against 4135.7 in the second quarter of 2018, i.e. an increase of about 9.8 thousand.

                    This population is divided into 2949.2 thousand men and 1196.3 thousand women, which represents 71.1% and 28.9% of the active population, respectively.

                    In the third quarter of 2018, the number of occupants stood at 3502.7 thousand against 3497.7 thousand in the second quarter of the same year, up 5.0 thousand.

                    This population is divided into 2579.3 thousand men and 923.4 thousand women, which represents 73.6% and 26.4% of the employed population, respectively.

                    The distribution of occupations by sector of activity is as follows: 51.9% in the service sector, 18.7% in the manufacturing sector, 15.2% in the non-manufacturing sector and 14.2% in the agriculture and fishing sector.

                    Note that these results come from a quarterly “household survey”, on a random sample.

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